Betting Advice

Wales v France – Six Nations Round 2 betting preview

Last Updated: 13:41 GMT+2, Fri 13 February 2026. Written by Ollie Keohane

The final fixture of round two of the Guinness Men’s Six Nations takes place in Cardiff, where Wales host defending champions France. The market reflects a significant mismatch, with the pre-match handicap set at a large number. Kick-off is 17:10 SAST.

Match officials
Referee: James Doleman (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Christophe Ridley (England), Sam Grove-White (Scotland)
TMO: Richard Kelly (New Zealand)

(Weather and roof status at the Principality Stadium to be confirmed closer to kick-off.)

Scotland v England – Six Nations Round 2 betting preview

The teams

Wales (1–15)
15 Louis Rees-Zammit; 14 Ellis Mee; 13 Eddie James; 12 Joe Hawkins; 11 Josh Adams; 10 Dan Edwards; 9 Tomos Williams;
1 Rhys Carre; 2 Dewi Lake (capt); 3 Tomas Francis; 4 Dafydd Jenkins; 5 Adam Beard; 6 Aaron Wainwright; 7 Alex Mann; 8 Olly Cracknell.
Bench: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Ben Carter, 20 Taine Plumtree, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Mason Grady.

France (1–15)
15 Thomas Ramos; 14 Théo Attissogbe; 13 Émilien Gailleton; 12 Fabien Brau-Boirie; 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey; 10 Matthieu Jalibert; 9 Antoine Dupont (capt);
1 Jean-Baptiste Gros; 2 Julien Marchand; 3 Dorian Aldegheri; 4 Charles Ollivon; 5 Mickaël Guillard; 6 François Cros; 7 Oscar Jégou; 8 Anthony Jelonch.
Bench: 16 Maxime Lamothe, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Régis Montagne, 19 Thibaud Flament, 20 Emmanuel Meafou, 21 Lenni Nouchi, 22 Baptiste Serin, 23 Noah Nene.

Rugby betting guide for beginners

Selection storylines

Wales

Wales come into this fixture on the back of another heavy defeat, having been dismantled 48–7 by England at Twickenham. That loss extended a miserable run in the Championship and reinforced why Wales are short-priced favourites for the wooden spoon.

Steve Tandy has made several changes in response, bringing Joe Hawkins into the midfield and handing Olly Cracknell a start at No.8. Rhys Carre and Tomas Francis also come into the front row as Wales search for greater physical resistance.

Despite the changes, this remains a young and fragile side, short on confidence and facing a daunting task against the tournament’s most complete outfit.

France

France arrive in Cardiff brimming with confidence after a commanding 36–14 bonus-point win over Ireland in Paris. Fabien Galthié keeps faith with his core group, with Antoine Dupont and Matthieu Jalibert again combining at halfback.

The headline selection call is the Test debut of 20-year-old Fabien Brau-Boirie in midfield, partnered by Émilien Gailleton. France’s ability to blood the youngsters underlines their depth and confidence, particularly with heavy-hitters like Meafou and Flament waiting on the bench.

All signs point to France targeting another five-point haul as they chase back-to-back titles and a Grand Slam.

Ireland v Italy – Six Nations Round 2 betting preview

Recent head-to-head (last five)

Jan 2025: France 43–0 Wales (Paris)
Mar 2024: Wales 24–45 France (Cardiff)
Mar 2023: France 41–28 Wales (Paris)
Mar 2022: Wales 9–13 France (Cardiff)
Mar 2021: France 32–30 Wales (Paris)

France have won the last seven meetings, with margins growing steadily wider over the past two seasons.

Key points

1) France’s tempo from kick-off
France scored the first 29 points against Ireland last week. An early surge in Cardiff could quickly put Wales into survival mode.

2) Wales’ ability to limit damage early
If Wales can slow the game, reduce penalties and avoid early tries, they may keep the contest respectable. If not, the handicap comes into play very quickly.

3) France’s edge threat
With Ramos pulling strings and Bielle-Biarrey finishing clinically, France’s wide channels remain lethal — particularly against a Welsh backfield under pressure.

4) Bench power
France’s replacements are designed to raise the physical ceiling late. Wales simply do not have equivalent depth to absorb a final-quarter surge.

Understanding rugby markets – tries, handicaps and winning margins

Betting prediction

Pick: France -31.5

The line is large, but recent evidence suggests France are comfortable covering big handicaps against struggling sides. Wales are low on confidence, short on cohesion, and facing an opponent motivated to build points difference.

Other angles worth considering: