This is a round-two Guinness Men’s Six Nations fixture in Dublin, with Ireland under early pressure after defeat in Paris and Italy arriving with confidence following a statement win over Scotland. Kick-off is 15:15 local (Ireland), 17:15 SAST.
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The teams
Ireland (1–15)
15 Jamie Osborne; 14 Tommy O’Brien; 13 Garry Ringrose; 12 Stuart McCloskey; 11 Jacob Stockdale; 10 Sam Prendergast; 9 Jamison Gibson-Park;
1 Jeremy Loughman; 2 Dan Sheehan; 3 Thomas Clarkson; 4 Joe McCarthy; 5 Tadhg Beirne; 6 Cian Prendergast; 7 Josh van der Flier; 8 Caelan Doris (capt).
Bench: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Nick Timoney, 22 Craig Casey, 23 Jack Crowley.
Italy (1–15)
15 Ange Capuozzo; 14 Monty Ioane; 13 Juan Ignacio Brex (capt); 12 Tommaso Menoncello; 11 Lorenzo Pani; 10 Paolo Garbisi; 9 Stephen Varney;
1 Danilo Fischetti; 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi; 3 Simone Ferrari; 4 Niccolò Cannone; 5 Federico Ruzza; 6 Sebastian Negri; 7 Michele Lamaro; 8 Lorenzo Cannone.
Bench: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Ivan Nemer, 18 Pietro Ceccarelli, 19 Dino Lamb, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Tommaso Allan, 23 Leonardo Marin.
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Selection storylines
Ireland
The focus remains on Sam Prendergast and how Ireland respond to their defeat in Paris. The young fly-half showed flashes of control against France but was often forced into clearance mode as Ireland struggled to generate consistent front-foot ball.
Bundee Aki’s continued absence remains a major talking point. Without his gain-line presence, Ireland are leaning more heavily on McCloskey, Sheehan and Doris to win collisions and stabilise the middle third. There is also scrutiny on Ireland’s discipline and breakdown accuracy after being punished repeatedly by France.
Italy
Italy arrive in Dublin buoyed by an 18–15 win over Scotland that felt more convincing than the scoreline suggests. Under Gonzalo Quesada, the Azzurri look more structured, more patient and more comfortable closing games out.
The Brex–Menoncello midfield continues to mature, while Garbisi’s composure at 10 gives Italy far greater control than in previous campaigns. The challenge in Dublin will be sustaining physical accuracy for 80 minutes against a wounded opponent.
Recent head-to-head (last five)
15 Mar 2025: Ireland 36–0 Italy (Dublin)
11 Feb 2024: Italy 27–26 Ireland (Rome)
25 Feb 2023: Italy 20–34 Ireland (Rome)
12 Feb 2022: Ireland 57–6 Italy (Dublin)
14 Mar 2021: Italy 10–48 Ireland (Rome)
That 2024 upset in Rome still looms large. It showed that Italy can punish Irish sloppiness — but Dublin has traditionally been far less forgiving.
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Key match points
1) Ireland’s response at the breakdown
Van der Flier and Doris will be tasked with reasserting control after losing key moments to France. If Ireland slow Italy’s recycle and deny Garbisi time, they cut off Italy’s composure early.
2) Italy’s ability to survive the first 20 minutes
Italy must weather an emotional Irish start. Conceding early momentum or soft penalties could quickly turn this into a long afternoon.
3) The midfield collision battle
Brex and Menoncello will test Ireland’s reshaped midfield defensively. If Italy win the gain-line consistently, Ireland’s backfield spacing will come under pressure.
4) Bench impact and late-game control
Ireland’s bench offers more proven Test experience. If the game stays competitive into the final quarter, Ireland are better equipped to raise tempo and close.
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Betting prediction
Pick: Ireland to win
Ireland are under pressure, at home, and historically ruthless in Dublin against Italy. Expect a more controlled, territory-driven performance aimed at restoring confidence rather than chasing flair.
For added value beyond the straight result:
-
Ireland -13.5 @1.58 if you expect Italy’s early resistance to fade
- First-half Ireland -7 @1.85 appeals if the hosts start with urgency
Projected score: Ireland by 15–20
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