The final round of the July leg produces the most compelling card yet, headlined by New Zealand against Ireland at Eden Park, South Africa against Wales in Durban and England’s trip to Santiago del Estero.
Both hemispheres have won six matches apiece heading into the decisive round.
New Zealand v Ireland (09:10 SAST)
Two unbeaten sides collide at Eden Park in the match of the round. Ireland beat Japan and Australia in their opening two fixtures. New Zealand beat France 34-32 before demolishing Italy 47-17.
Rennie brings back Tupou Vaa’i and Tuipulotu into the pack, while Ireland captain Sheehan leads a side featuring the returning van der Flier and Furlong.
New Zealand have not lost at Eden Park since 1994, an unbeaten run of over 32 years and more than 50 Tests.
Pick: New Zealand to win @1.24
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Japan v France (10:40 SAST)
France hammered Australia 42-26 in Round 2 and arrive in Tokyo as overwhelming favourites. Japan lost to Ireland 36-20 and face a near full-strength French squad.
No value on the outright at 1.02, but over 60.5 total points at 1.47 is compelling given France’s attacking output and Japan’s inability to restrict Tier 1 sides.
Pick: Over 60.5 total points @1.47
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Australia v Italy (12:10 SAST)
Joe Schmidt’s final match in charge. Australia have lost both fixtures while Italy were beaten 47-17 by New Zealand in Round 2.
Australia (-4.5) at 1.21 offers value as the Wallabies need a statement win at home in Perth.
Pick: Australia (-4.5) @1.21
Fiji v Scotland (15:10 SAST)
Nominally a Fiji home fixture but played at Murrayfield in Edinburgh. Fiji were thrashed 8-73 by England in Round 2 and have been overwhelmed throughout. Scotland should win comfortably even with a rotated side.
Pick: Scotland to win @1.08
South Africa v Wales (17:40 SAST)
South Africa host Wales in Durban on an eleven-match winning streak. They beat England 45-21 and Scotland 42-28. Wales beat Fiji 39-24 in Round 1 before losing 21-35 to Argentina in Round 2.
There is little value on the match result, but over 70.5 total points at 1.85 is the standout market given the Springboks’ attacking selections and Wales’s defensive record against Tier 1 sides.
Pick: Over 70.5 total points @1.85
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Argentina v England (21:10 SAST)
England travel to Santiago del Estero having thrashed Fiji 73-8. Argentina beat Wales 35-21 in Round 2 after losing 47-38 to Scotland in Round 1.
England at 1.60 offers genuine value, with Borthwick keeping faith with the core XV from the Fiji win.
Pick: England to win @1.60
Saturday accumulator
New Zealand @1.24
Over 60.5 (Japan v France) @1.47
Australia (-4.5) @1.21
Scotland @1.08
Over 70.5 (South Africa v Wales) @1.85
England @1.60
Total accumulator odds: 7.05
Photo: David Rogers/Nations Championship via Getty Images
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