Reigning champions France launched their Six Nations title defence with an emphatic win over Ireland, fellow contenders England were far too strong for a woeful Wales, and Italy maintained their progress with a deserved defeat of Scotland.
Below AFP Sport looks at three things learned from an eventful first week of the Championship, while we interpret what these lessons mean to bettors for the rest of the Six Nations.
Six Nations wrap: France set the standard, Italy stun Scotland, England run riot
France vindicate Galthie’s Six Nations selection policy
France coach Fabien Galthie provoked plenty of comment by dropping Les Bleus’ record try-scorer Damien Penaud, centre Gael Fickou and No.8 Gregory Alldritt from his initial Six Nations squad.
Yet such is France’s enviable strength in depth, the trio were barely missed during a commanding 36-14 win over Ireland, with centre Nicolas Depoortere beating seven defenders during the Stade de France encounter.
Meanwhile, man-of-the-match Mickael Guillard, who started at lock, shouldered a significant amount of the ball-carrying workload as outstanding scrum-half Antoine Dupont made his first Test appearance since suffering a severe knee injury against Ireland last March.
Rugby betting guide for beginners
Betting angle: England pose the only real threat to France
France outright Six Nations winner, now carries less rotation risk than Ireland or England. They’re also strong value in France to win all home matches, especially if bookmakers continue to price in perceived “weakened” squads when Galthié rotates. France’s odds as outright winners move to 1.44. Given that neither Scotland, Italy or Wales offer a threat to the French, this shapes up as a very safe return on one’s. The only threat to France’s title hopes is an England side that walloped Wales in their opening match, to extend their winning streak to 12 games. France v England will be a critical fixture to the final outcome of the tournament.
Ford still driving England onto glory
George Ford turns 33 next month, and there are those who question why England coach Steve Borthwick persists with the veteran fly-half this close to the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia when younger alternatives such as Fin Smith and Marcus Smith are available.
But it was easy to understand Borthwick’s thinking as Ford masterminded a 48-7 hammering of Wales at Twickenham, his sharp pass and precise cross-kick setting up Henry Arundell for the first two of the wing’s three tries.
Admittedly, Ford will rarely have had an easier ride in his 106 England caps than against an utterly outclassed Wales suffering a 12th consecutive Championship defeat.
By contrast, this was England’s 12th successive victory in all Tests — their best sequence since Ford featured in a run of 18 wins in a row from 2015-2017.
England are often accused of arrogance come what may, but Ford has urged the team to embrace their new-found confidence ahead of a potentially awkward second-round clash with Scotland in Edinburgh.
“We’ve got to definitely use it, it’s such a positive thing, why wouldn’t we?,” he said. “A lot of the time in England we get told to temper it, but let’s use it.”
Understanding rugby markets – tries, handicaps and winning margins
Betting angle: England offer value in handicaps, and tournament outright.
England remain attractive on match handicaps when facing sides with discipline or depth issues. Ford-led England are also increasingly reliable for first-half handicap and total points unders in tighter away fixtures where control trumps flair. England should beat Italy, Ireland and Scotland, which means that if Borthwick’s men are able to hold out the French when they meet on the 14th of March, their odds of 3.00 to win the tournament make for an attractive offer. Their pre-tournament odds to win have already dropped from 6.00 following their emphatic victory over Wales.
Spotlight still on Scotland coach Townsend
Scotland boss Gregor Townsend only signed a new contract in September that is meant to see him remain in charge until the 2027 World Cup.
But if rugby superpower New Zealand can fire a head coach, as they did when dismissing Scott Robertson last month, in sight of the global showpiece, might Scotland yet be tempted to do the same with Townsend?
The former Scotland playmaker was left with his head in his hands come the final whistle of an 18-15 defeat by Italy in a rain-sodden Rome, the narrow margin flattering the visitors after they were outshone in all departments by an Azzurri side benefitting from coach Gonzalo Quesada’s guidance.
Townsend, 52, took charge of Scotland nine years ago and, for all the talk of a ‘golden generation’ of players, he has still to end their unwanted record of failing to finish higher than third place since the Five Nations became the Six Nations in 2000.
Saturday’s reverse at the Stadio Olimpico was yet another example of their inability to overcome adversity following dispiriting losses to New Zealand and Argentina in November.
But a Calcutta Cup match against England at Murrayfield is the surest way of firing up Scotland.
“I believe in the players, I believe in what we’re doing,” said Townsend. “It didn’t happen (against Italy) and we’ve got to make sure it happens next week.”
Rugby live betting – Reading momentum, cards and tactical swings
Betting angle:
Value is emerging in opposition +handicaps and Scotland team totals under against structured sides. Until they show resilience under pressure, backing them to cover remains a gamble rather than a strategy.
Content – AFP & AfricaPicks
Photo by Dan Mullan – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images
ZarBet
- Very strong sign up offer
- Fast app on iOS & Android
- Extensive betting content
