Wales host Italy in Cardiff looking to end a frustrating Six Nations campaign on a positive note, while the visitors arrive with a genuine opportunity to record one of their most successful championships in the modern era.
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Match details
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 18:40 SAST
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
For Wales, the focus is simply finishing strong in front of a home crowd. Dewi Lake captains the side from hooker, with Rhys Carre again a powerful presence in the front row after his standout performance against Ireland. Aaron Wainwright anchors the back row alongside James Botham and Alex Mann, while Tomos Williams and Dan Edwards combine at halfback.
The Welsh backline carries attacking spark, with Louis Rees-Zammit at fullback and Josh Adams providing experience on the wing. Eddie James and Joe Hawkins form the midfield pairing.
Italy arrive with momentum and confidence following their historic victory over England in Rome last weekend. Gonzalo Quesada has kept faith with the core of that side, with Paolo Garbisi guiding play at flyhalf and the influential centre partnership of Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello again starting.
Louis Lynagh and Monty Ioane offer speed on the wings, while captain Michele Lamaro leads a physical pack that includes the Cannone brothers in the tight five.
Italy have already beaten Scotland and England in this year’s championship and another victory in Cardiff would mark a landmark third win of the campaign.
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Teams
Wales XV:
15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 James Botham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Ben Carter, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements:
16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Olly Cracknell, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Blair Murray
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Italy XV:
15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (c), 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements:
16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 David Odiase, 21 Stephen Varney, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Tommaso Allan
Betting angle
Italy’s upward trajectory makes this a compelling betting contest. The Azzurri have already proven they can beat higher-ranked sides in this tournament and their attack has looked increasingly sharp. Wales’ home advantage keeps the handicap tight, but Italy on the + handicap or Italy win looks like the value play. Given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities, over on the match points market also deserves consideration.
Prediction: Italy by 7
Value bet: Italy -3.5 @1.87
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