Australia head into the third Ashes Test in Adelaide with a commanding 2–0 series lead and the betting markets reflect a growing gap between the sides. The hosts are valued at 1.47, with England drifting to 3.10 and the draw at 12.00, numbers that underline just how firmly Australia control the contest heading into the pink-ball clash.
The first two Tests have established a clear pattern. Australia are dictating terms through sustained pace pressure, while England’s batting continues to fracture under movement, bounce and scoreboard pressure. Those trends shape where punters should be focusing their attention.
MORE: Understanding cricket markets – runs, wickets and overs
Australia outright remains the anchor market
Australia’s dominance has not relied on one-off moments. They have won eight of their last ten Tests at Adelaide Oval and lost just once there since 2010. England, by contrast, have won only once at the venue since 1995 and remain winless in their last 17 Tests in Australia.
With Pat Cummins expected to return, alongside Mitchell Starc already sitting on 18 wickets for the series, Australia’s bowling depth strengthens further. The Australia or Draw double chance at 1.35 and Australia draw-no-bet at 1.37 provide structured cover for conservative staking.
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England batting unders continue to hold value
England have lost 40 wickets across four innings in the first two Tests. Even their lone resistance in Brisbane, the Stokes-Jacks stand, was defensive and ultimately unsustainable.
Punters should again prioritise:
England first-innings runs unders
England top-batter under thresholds
Early fall of wicket markets
England’s strike rate numbers may look aggressive on paper, but they continue to convert speed into dismissals rather than scoreboard control.
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Bowler markets favour Australia again
Mitchell Starc remains the series’ defining figure. His ability to exploit both new and ageing balls makes Starc Player of the Match (8.00) and Starc top bowler markets logical entries once available.
Cummins’ return may spread wickets slightly, but it also increases sustained pressure.
England’s bowlers lack consistency. Archer remains dangerous in spells, but Australia’s top order has largely neutralised pressure once set.
Century and milestone markets
Only one England century has been scored in the series so far. Conditions continue to favour movement. Any player to score 100 at 1.16 is priced accordingly, but value may lie in team 100s under or total 50s under when markets open.
Joe Root’s record at Adelaide keeps him relevant for individual runs markets, but England’s broader batting struggles limits confidence beyond selective picks.
See Also: Cricket live betting – reading momentum in real time
The takeaway
Australia remain the clear betting anchor. England’s fragility under pressure, combined with Adelaide’s history and Australia’s bowling strength, keeps the value firmly on wicket-driven and under-based markets.
Until England show sustained resistance across sessions, the market trends remain unchanged and profitable.
Photo: Mike Hewitt/Getty Images
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