The opening Six Nations weekend confirmed France as the tournament’s pace-setters, underlined England’s growing confidence, and left Wales staring down a long February and March.
With that in mind, here’s how the major outright and player markets are shaping up after the first set of fixtures. Odds as listed on Betway, subject to change.
Six Nations lessons and betting angles – France depth, Ford influence and Scottish doubt
Championship winner
France remain the clear favourites to lift the Six Nations trophy at 1.44. Their win over Ireland was not only emphatic on the scoreboard but convincing in depth, tempo and physical dominance. The market reflects that authority.
England sit second favourites at 3.00 and are the obvious alternative. A dominant opening performance and a growing sense of clarity under Steve Borthwick has shortened them significantly compared to pre-tournament prices.
Ireland and Scotland are already drifting badly at 34.00 and 41.00 respectively. Italy and Wales are effectively out of the title conversation at 100.00 and 500.00.
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Grand Slam winner
France are again at the head of the market at 1.90 to complete a Grand Slam. Given their remaining fixture list and squad depth, that price reflects both form and fixture sequencing.
England at 3.50 remain in touch, but the margin for error is slim. One slip away from home likely ends that bet.
The most interesting number here may be “No Grand Slam” at 3.75. With multiple high-quality clashes still to come and weather often playing a role later in the tournament, this remains a live alternative to backing a single team outright.
To finish bottom
This is one of the clearest markets after round one.
Wales are strong favourites to finish bottom at 1.40, and it is hard to argue with the logic. Confidence looks shot, attacking structure is minimal, and there is little evidence yet of a quick turnaround.
Italy are next at 4.00 and may appeal as a speculative hedge given their remaining fixtures, while Scotland at 8.95 feels more about market caution than realistic threat.
England and France are effectively non-runners at 500.00 and 1,000.00.
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Triple Crown winner
England dominate this market at 1.50, reflecting their opening statement and their ability to impose themselves physically on the Home Nations.
Ireland are priced at 8.00, with Scotland at 13.00, while “No Triple Crown” sits at 4.50 and remains viable given the volatility of derby fixtures.
Top tryscorer
Louis Bielle-Biarrey has moved into clear favouritism at 1.61 after a blistering start and France’s attacking dominance. He is being priced as the most likely beneficiary of France’s width and tempo.
Henry Arundell at 3.75 remains the obvious English threat, while Theo Attissogbe (5.50) and Tommy Freeman (9.00) sit in the second tier.
Further back, players like Immanuel Feyi-Waboso (15.00) and Nicolas Depoortere (17.00) offer longer-priced exposure to teams expected to score tries consistently.
Understanding rugby markets – tries, handicaps and winning margins
Top points scorer
Thomas Ramos is the standout at 1.44, and the market is effectively saying France will both score heavily and kick often enough to separate him from the field.
George Ford at 3.00 is the clear alternative if England continue to control territory and scoreboard pressure. The drop to Finn Russell at 11.00 underlines Scotland’s reduced attacking confidence after round one.
Top tryscoring nation
France are again short at 1.61, reflecting their ability to rack up tries across multiple fixtures. England at 3.00 are the only realistic challengers, while Ireland at 9.00 and Scotland at 25.90 feel more like insurance prices.
Italy (51.00) and Wales (200.00) are effectively written off in this market.
Rugby live betting – Reading momentum, cards and tactical swings
Top points-scoring nation
This market closely mirrors the tryscoring outlook.
France lead at 1.53, England follow at 3.25, and then there is a steep jump to Ireland (10.10) and Scotland (26.20). Unless game control swings dramatically, this is France’s market to lose.
The betting takeaway after round one
France have emerged from the opening weekend as dominant favourites across almost every major Six Nations market. England remain the clear second force and the only side priced to consistently challenge them across titles, scoring markets and player awards.
Wales are already isolated at the bottom of multiple markets, while Italy and Scotland are being treated as spoiler sides rather than true contenders.
As always, the value going forward may lie not in chasing favourites, but in identifying where markets have perhaps over-reacted to one round of evidence.
Photo by Dan Mullan – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images
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