England arrive at Murrayfield on a roll for the Calcutta Cup clash against Scotland, historically a low-scoring arm wrestle.
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Scotland’s defeat to Italy was a setback, yet history shows they often raise their level against England at home. This fixture tends to be tight and emotionally charged, rather than free-flowing. Less than a point separates the two sides on average scores over the last five fixtures (England 19 – Scotland 18.6), while the average combined total points in the last five head-to-head sits at just 37.6.
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Recent head-to-head
Feb 2025: England 16–15 Scotland (Twickenham)
Feb 2024: Scotland 30–21 England (Edinburgh)
Feb 2023: England 23–29 Scotland (Twickenham)
Feb 2022: Scotland 20–17 England (Edinburgh)
Feb 2021: England 6–11 Scotland (Twickenham)
Scotland have won four of the last five meetings, but margins have been consistently tight, with none decided by more than nine points.
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Given the state of both the English and the Scottish side currently, England should be much more comfortable than in recent history, but one can never discount a derby like this. The gap between the sides is rarely reflected accurately in the handicap. Making a total points play allows the match to follow its usual pattern, without the uncertainty of an outright winner or handicap.
Value bet: Total points under 48.5 @1.89
Photo by Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images
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