Ireland are heavy favourites against Australia in Dublin, and a double-digit handicap is where the value lies when wagering on the two sides this weekend.
Ireland have played two very different matches in the last fortnight – one a lesson in heartbreak, the other a 40-point hitout. In Chicago, they were the better side for 60 minutes against the All Blacks. They won the collisions, controlled the tempo, and built a 10-point lead that ultimately needed to be higher. What cost them the game was not structural failure but a 20-minute storm as New Zealand found their bench impact and Ireland couldn’t absorb the surge. It was a collapse of energy, not identity.
Ireland responded last weekend by putting Japan away by 40 points. You could feel the frustration of the Chicago finish being channelled into something constructive, and Ireland’s high-tempo and refined systems made easy work of an average Japanese side.
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Australia, by contrast, look stuck. Their first match of the tour was a worrying non-performance against England, where they were physically outmatched and tactically disconnected. Nothing stuck – not their exit shape, not their spacing in the backfield, not the breakdown contest. Losing at Twickenham can happen, but the manner of the defeat seemed resigned.
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Then it got worse. Against Italy, Australia built a small lead but never controlled the match. When pressure came, they folded. Italy’s comeback wasn’t a fluke – it was the second time in two years they have beaten Australia, after losing the first 19 meetings across history. The Wallabies’ defence looked confused, their kicking game panicked, and their pack failed to impose anything meaningful in the final quarter. They don’t quite seem to be the upwards-trending team of earlier this year. The reality is that they are 4/9 this year, with two of those wins tight games agaisnt Fiji and Japan
James O’Connor returning is a boost, but it won’t overturn structural issues. Ireland’s defence is too organised, their ruck work too disciplined, and their patterns too well-grooved for a single playmaker – especially one who hasn’t been the fulcrum of the side for years – to change the outcome. O’Connor adds calmness, but calmness doesn’t win collisions or magically fix a pack that has struggled to generate front-foot ball.
Related: All the match-day squads for this weekend’s Test matches.
Ireland at home are ruthless. They punish ill-discipline, they squeeze territory, and their phase accuracy forces opposition packs to make tackle after tackle. Australia have not shown the fitness, physical resilience or tactical clarity to survive that pressure for 80 minutes.
Everything about this matchup points one way: Ireland are sharpening with purpose, and playing with a point to prove. Australia are leaking confidence, structure, and belief.
Pick: Ireland -10.5 @1.84
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