Through circumstance rather than design, Rassie Erasmus has named a frightening Springbok squad to take on an inexperienced Welsh side in Cardiff on Saturday. What was supposed to be a patched-together end-of-tour team has instead become one of the most physically imposing Bok match-day groups ever fielded in Cardiff. Under a closed roof at the Principality Stadium, a record score could be on the cards.
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Erasmus has leaned into versatility out of necessity. Outside of the specialist scrumhalf, the entire Bok backline is effectively made up of players who can and have all played either inside or outside centre at the highest level, with starting 12 Andre Esterhuizen having regularly played flank for the Boks over the last month too. It’s a monstrous mix of bulk, power and defensive punch, and a daunting prospect for a new-look, youthful Welsh back division that has barely played together.
Beyond the one-on-one collisions, the aerial battle could be a nightmare for Wales. With Canan Moodie and Ethan Hooker patrolling the wings, the Boks will bombard a debutant Ellis Mee and a returning Rio Dyer with contestables all evening. Add the 110+ kilogram midfielders and Damian Willemse’s hang-time-heavy boot, and Wales could spend most of the evening fielding bombs under suffocating green pressure.
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Up front, Erasmus has gone full Nuke Squad. Wilco Louw — the Boks’ strongest scrummager this year — starts at tighthead, anchoring a pack already stacked with enforcers. But the headline selection is the return of the 7-1 bench split. Not by planned design, Erasmus insists, but by availability. With overseas clubs refusing to release players in this non-Test window, the Bok mentor was left scratching together a 23 rather than tailoring a tactical blueprint.
“These are actually just the only guys available,” Erasmus admitted. “Player 24 is Tuks Mchunu and player 25 is Duane Vermeulen. One injury and they’re in.”
But necessity may work out beautifully for the World Champions. Seven forwards on the bench means a fresh wave of power for the final 30 minutes — a period where Wales, who have 14 changes to the squad that played their recent Tests, could fade dramatically.
Cobus Reinach — playing his 50th Test — is the lone back on the bench, and even he is being repurposed. Erasmus revealed that the Boks have mapped everything: Reinach covering wing, Kwagga Smith defending at nine if two backs go down, and Ben-Jason Dixon slotting into the backline if it goes completely pear-shaped. Only the Springboks could treat an injury crisis like a tactical opportunity.
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Wales, for their part, have had a brutal week. With 13 first-choice players unavailable, interim coach Steve Tandy has been forced into six call-ups and wholesale reshuffling. Their backline features a debutant, a returning winger, a new centre combination and a fresh 9-10 axis. Up front, the lock pairing is completely new, and the bench is stacked with rookies.
Preparation has been “far from ideal”, Tandy admitted — and against this version of the Springboks, that is as ominous as it sounds.
This is the World Champions’ final Test of the year. They are unbeaten on tour. They have their heaviest bench ever. They have a backline of centres and bruisers, and a pack designed to fold inexperienced forwards. Wales will play with spirit — they always do — but this mismatch looks historic.
It is genuinely hard to see Wales holding on for 80 minutes let alone 40. The Boks have never beaten Wales by 40 points or more in Cardiff, but this is the weakest Welsh team they’ve faced in decades, and arguably the most physically overwhelming Springbok side to walk onto the Principality turf.
A record score in Cardiff is not just possible — it’s probable.
Our bet: Boks -42.5 @ 2.10
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Photo by Sam Barnes/Gallo Images
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