It is a heavyweight weekend of international rugby, with northern tourists and southern hunters colliding across Europe. With a weekend full of clear favourites, we’ve had to dig into other markets to look for value.
Ireland vs Japan
Ireland will feel that they never should have lost last week to New Zealand in Chicago, having been the dominant side for 60 minutes before an incredible surge of energy and intent from the All Blacks saw them steal a victory on neutral ground. Playing in Dublin this weekend, Ireland should smash a Japanese team that already suffered 61 points from the Springboks in their opening match of the tour.
While a blowout is likely, the two sides have only gone over 65.5 points on four occasions, and it is unlikely that the game goes higher than the 68 total combined points in last weekend’s fixture between South Africa and Japan.
Pick: Under 65.5 total points @1.85
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Scotland vs New Zealand
Scotland’s growth in attacking identity meets a New Zealand side that has been confusing to watch, to say the least. Chopping and changing combinations, the All Blacks seemed to stumble into their best side because of injury against Ireland rather than selection.
Scotland have shown they can score tries against anyone, especially at Murrayfield. The concern is maintaining intensity for eighty minutes and defending multiple phases near their own line, especially against a side notorious for late victories. They have also never beaten the All Blacks.
With a history like this, it’s hard to ignore the odds on offer for an outright New Zealand win.
Pick: New Zealand to win @1.38
England vs Fiji
England were emphatic in beating Australia last weekend, and are clear favourites at home against Fiji, given the quality of their squad.
However, when the two sides last met in 2023, Fiji won the one match (30-22) at Twickenham, and then lost on neutral ground by only six points (30-24). Given how tight the recent fixtures have been, England’s handicaps seem hugely inflated, and value could be found in backing Fiji to cover a higher spread.
Pick: Fiji +27.5 @1.53
Italy vs Australia
Italy at home will play fast, ambitious rugby against an Aussie side who kicked off their November series with a disappointing loss to Englan. The Wallabies have experienced mixed results this year, but have shown a willingness to play and defend with intent. T
Italy have beaten tier one sides in recent years but often struggles against teams that pressure their breakdown and midfield defence. Australia have the athleticism and kicking options to do so. Also check International Rugby results.
Pick: Australia -7.5 @1.40
France vs South Africa
The fixture of the weekend. France in Paris are formidable, built around physicality, kicking pressure and structured attack. They have also been waiting for this match since their heartbreak to the Boks at the 2o23 World Cup, where a one-point loss ended their campaign.
As good as France have been, and as much as they have been waiting, Rassie should have something up his sleeve,a s the Boks would have viewed this as their most important fixture on the end of the year tour. It’s hard to ignore the odds on offer for a Springbok win.
Pick: South Africa to win @1.88
Keo & Zels: Rassie has panicked France on the run
Wales vs Argentina
Argentina blow as hot as they do cold, and while they have suffered some emphatic losses this year, they have also beaten the British & Irish Lions, Australia and New Zealand.
Argentina have a strong record in Cardiff in recent years and often thrives on slower northern pitches. Couple this with a Welsh side whose only win this year came against Japan, and you have clear favourites.
Pick: Argentina -7.5 @1.53
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