I had Ireland and Australia to upset expectations this past weekend, and it didn’t quite land.
Ireland and the Wallabies were the value plays — and sometimes value plays stay exactly that: theory, not payout. The accumulator lived and died on the two gutsy calls, and both went south.
Ireland went to Chicago with history on their side and enough recent success against the All Blacks to justify a punt. But history doesn’t tackle, and sentiment doesn’t score, and despite dominance for the best part of 60 minutes, Ireland could not lengthen the score gap. New Zealand’s bench brought a different dynamic and intensity to the team, and a strong final 20 minutes was enough to beat the Irish and remove the flag that was planted in Chicago back in 2016.
Australia entered this fixture with continuity, confidence and a solid Rugby Championship behind them, but jsut did not show up to the races. England battered them under the high ball and returned with sharpness and control. It wasn’t a blowout, but the Wallabies were much worse than they should have been.
Was the thinking wrong? Not really. You take those bets because they offer upside the favourites don’t. This time, it didn’t click. No drama, no despair — just a reminder that value betting is a long-term game and weekends like this come with the territory.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
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