In France’s Top 14, home ground advantage is king, but when odds are dramatically stacked against a decent team on the road, there is still room for a smart flutter — provided you keep perspective on what you’re willing to risk.
A week ago, I wrote about the potential of Stade Français on the road against Castres. Just one score separated the two, with Castres winning 29–24. I would take the same punt again.
Home wins will likely dominate this weekend’s Top 14 action, but when I see odds of 10.00 and 8.00 the temptation is clear.
Related: URC Round 5: Keo’s accumulator
Union Bordeaux Beagles v Avrion Bayonne
The 10.00 reflects Bayonne’s long price away at Bordeaux. Perhaps the odds are justified, but at that value, there’s a case for backing Bayonne to cause an upset.
Clermont Auvergne v Castres Olympique
Similarly, Castres travel to Clermont at 8.00 for an away win — a price worth small-stakes consideration. Giving up a breakfast and coffee (about R100) for a shot at that return seems a fair exchange.
Northampton Saints v Saracens
In the Premiership, last week’s recommendation of Leicester at home to end Bath’s unbeaten start paid off, with the Tigers delivering a strong performance at decent odds.
This weekend, Saracens at 2.50 to win away at Northampton Saints presents another value-driven flutter. Beyond that, most matches favour the home sides too heavily to offer meaningful returns.
For more from Keo visit keo.co.oza
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