South Africa’s final AFCON 2025 Group B fixture arrives on Monday night as they face Zimbabwe at the Stade d’Agadir, with qualification still firmly in Bafana Bafana’s hands. Hugo Broos’ side sit second on three points after a 2–1 opening win over Angola and a narrow 1–0 defeat to Egypt, while Zimbabwe remain bottom of the group following a 2–1 loss to Egypt and a 1–1 draw with Angola. The equation is clear, South Africa control their destiny, while Zimbabwe need a result to keep their AFCON 2025 hopes alive.
Betway price South Africa at 1.67, with Zimbabwe at 5.40 and the draw 3.60. The market reflects South Africa’s greater consistency and structure, but also respects Zimbabwe’s ability to stay competitive in low-margin games.
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Form and context
Bafana Bafana’s campaign has been defined by control rather than fluency. The win over Angola showcased patience and discipline, while the controversial loss to Egypt, settled by a penalty, ended their unbeaten run under Broos but did little to undermine their overall profile. Bafana remain compact out of possession, difficult to break down, and measured in their attacking build-up.
Zimbabwe, by contrast, have been resilient without being prolific. They pushed Egypt deep in round one before falling 2–1, then showed composure to secure a 1–1 draw against Angola in round two. That result keeps them alive, but also underlines the fine margins they operate within. Their defensive shape has been solid, though they have struggled to sustain pressure for long spells.
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Where the value lies
The totals market points toward a controlled contest. Under 2.5 goals (1.59) is favoured over Over 2.5 (2.26), while BTTS “No” (1.61) is shorter than BTTS “Yes” (2.23). Given that all four Group B matches involving these sides have been settled by a single goal or ended level so far, the unders angle aligns cleanly with recent trends.
The match-result market is straightforward but short. For punters seeking a little more value, South Africa by 1 goal (3.35) reflects a likely game state. Bafana control territory and tempo, but without running away from a disciplined Zimbabwe side. Larger winning margins require a scenario Zimbabwe have largely avoided in the group.
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Prediction
South Africa’s organisation and depth should be enough to edge this contest, but Zimbabwe’s structure suggests a tactical battle rather than an open shootout.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.59
Secondary angle: South Africa to win by 1 goal @ 3.35
Photo: Richard Huggard/Gallo Images
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