Betting Advice

Wallabies well worth a punt against England

Last Updated: 16:20 GMT+2, Tue 28 October 2025. Written by Ollie Keohane

The bookies seem to have priced Australia on reputation rather than reality for their showdown against England this weekend, and the 4.50 odds on a Wallaby win provide punters with a value proposition.

A new-look Australia came to play this year, narrowly losing to the British & Irish Lions before recouping and starting their Rugby Championship by stunning the World Champion Springboks with a win at Emirates Airline Park (formerly the South African fortress, Ellis Park). Their second game to South Africa was a loss, but only by eight points, and what followed was an authoritative performance against Argentina, and the performances of a ide that finally looks to be coming togethr For the first time in several years, their forward pack carried consistent momentum, their breakdown work was disciplined rather than desperate, and their attack flowed with genuine structure. There is intent and purpose behind their play now, traits that were missing when results were so erratic under previous regimes. While they lost both games to the All Blacks and their other match to Argentina, they were competitive throughout and showed mongrel and consistency long lacking in the Australian game.

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Head coach Joe Schmidt has brought a level of control to selection and game plan that mirrors the calm he once instilled in Ireland. The spine of this Australian team is balanced with a few experienced heads and promising young players, most notably Rugby League convert Joseph Sua’ali’i, who won Man of the Match last November on debut against England in his first-ever professional Rugby Union match. This was the last time the two sides played each other, and Australia actually won in England. That result broke a long run of English dominance in the fixture and proved that, man for man, the Wallabies could match physicality with precision. They have since added layers to their attacking game, with more variation in their kicking options and a greater willingness to play through phases. England’s status as heavy favourites is likely also owing to the British & Irish Lions series win, which could easily have gone very differently had Australia been awarded a last-minute penalty in the second deciding Test.

Much of the scepticism around the Wallabies’ chances this weekend stems from their narrow win over Japan. The 35-30 result was hardly convincing, but context matters. It was a mixed side, missing several first-choice players who had been managed for workload after a demanding Rugby Championship. The Wallabies experimented with combinations, gave fringe players minutes and still found a way to win. That ability to grind out results, even when rhythm is lacking, is often a marker of a team on the rise.

England, meanwhile, remain unpredictable. They have struggled for fluency under Steve Borthwick, alternating between structured but static forward-based rugby and hurried attempts at width. Their recent wins have relied heavily on set-piece penalties and opportunism rather than sustained dominance. Against a team that thrives in broken play, that could become a liability.

The odds reflect public confidence more than competitive reality. England’s home advantage and historical record have inflated their price into unjustified territory, while Australia’s form line has been undervalued. At 4.50, you are backing a side that has rediscovered its cohesion, carries genuine attacking threats across the backline, and has developed a hardened edge in contact. Remember that this same Aussie side was priced at around 8.00 against South Africa in the opening Rugby Championship game, which they went on to win.

From a betting perspective, these are exactly the scenarios where smart punters find their margins. Australia have already shown in 2025 that they can hang with the world’s best for eighty minutes. Their balance between physical intensity and tactical awareness means they have rarely drifted out of contests this year, and their bench options have consistently added late impact.

A full-strength Wallabies team, sharper and more settled than the one that edged Japan, should take the field this weekend. If they reproduce a fraction of their Rugby Championship intensity, 4.50 is far too generous. The gap between these sides is not nearly as wide as the market suggests.

Pick: Australia to win (4.50)

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