Toulouse face Montpellier in the Top 14 final at Stade de France on Saturday, with the winner lifting the Bouclier de Brennus in a rematch of the 2011 decider that Toulouse won.
A fourth straight title is on offer for Toulouse, a feat the club has managed only once before, during their 1994-97 era. They arrive having demolished Racing 92 71-17 in the semi-final, the biggest winning margin in French play-off history.
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Montpellier reached the final by grinding out a 25-15 win over Stade Français, scoring just one try but landing six penalties through Domingo Miotti.
Last year’s final is also a reminder that finals rarely follow the script, with Toulouse needing extra time and a flawless boot from Thomas Ramos to edge Bordeaux-Begles 39-33.
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Toulouse’s threat hinges on ruck speed. When their breakdown is quick, Dupont becomes the most dangerous player in the game, with Ramos and Ntamack sharing the kicking and distribution duties behind him.
Montpellier will look to slow the ball, win the collisions and kick the points. The suspension of breakdown specialist Yacouba Camara removes a key tool from that plan, and Toulouse hold a significant bench edge too, with Marchand, Flament and Kinghorn in reserve.
Rugby live betting – Reading momentum, cards and tactical swings
Toulouse at 1.21 leaves little value on the outright result. The handicap markets offer more interest. Toulouse (-4.5) at 1.35 is a sharper line if their attack fires as it did against Racing, while over 56.5 total points at 1.69 is worth backing given Toulouse’s try-scoring ceiling.
Pick: Toulouse (-4.5) @1.35
Secondary Pick: Over 56-5 points @ 1.69
Photo: Lionel Hahn/Getty Images
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