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Why PSG are the pick in Budapest

Franco Arland/Getty Images

Paris Saint-Germain face Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League final in Budapest, and the best value bet is PSG to win and both teams to score at 4.60.

Why PSG to win

PSG are the reigning champions and are appearing in consecutive finals for the first time since Liverpool in 2018 and 2019. They arrive in Budapest in the kind of form that makes them genuinely difficult to stop.

Their 44 goals in this season’s competition is the second highest tally in a single Champions League campaign, behind only Barcelona’s 45 in 1999-2000. They have also scored in 27 consecutive matches.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been the standout player of the entire competition. His 16 goal involvements are the most by a PSG player in a Champions League campaign, and his 10 goals in the across the campaign match Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s club record. Crucially, he has scored or assisted in seven consecutive knockout appearances – a run only one player in Champions League history has ever matched.

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In midfield, Vitinha has made more than 220 line-breaking passes this season, roughly 40 more than any other player in the competition. PSG are not simply a team of individuals – they are well-drilled, experienced and ruthless going forward.

In the dugout, Luis Enrique’s career Champions League win rate of 64 per cent is the best of any manager with 50-plus matches in the competition’s history, having previously led Barcelona and PSG to the title in 2015 and 2025 respectively.

Arsenal, by contrast, will play their 63rd and final match of the season in Budapest – more than any other team from the big-five European leagues. They had to chase the Premier League title until the final week of the season, while PSG wrapped up Ligue 1 weeks earlier and managed their squad accordingly. Despite concerns of their ability to score from open play, fatigue is a real factor in a final.

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Why both teams to score

Arsenal’s defensive record this season has been exceptional. David Raya has kept nine clean sheets and the Gunners have conceded just six goals in 14 Champions League matches. They have not conceded from open play in any of their six knockout matches this season.

The issue is that PSG have scored against everyone. They have failed to score just once across this entire European campaign. Arsenal will create chances of their own – Bukayo Saka has five goals and three assists in six Champions League matches against Ligue 1 opposition – but the combination of PSG’s attacking output and Arsenal’s own quality in the final third makes a goalless final an unlikely scenario.

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PSG’s firepower, squad freshness and experience of winning from this position make them the pick. Arsenal’s defensive resilience means this is unlikely to be a comfortable victory, but a PSG win with goals at both ends at 4.80 represents real value.

Bet: PSG to win & BTTS: Yes @ 4.60

Booking code: BW596C2D5A

Photo: Franco Arland/Getty Images

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