Three South African teams are still standing in Saturday’s slate of URC quarter finals. Each with very different challenges.
The Bulls have home advantage against battle-hardened Munster, the Stormers get an immediate shot at redemption against Cardiff in Cape Town, while the Lions travel to Dublin hoping to produce the biggest upset of the weekend against Leinster.
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Bulls v Munster
Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Kick-off: 13:00 SAST
The Bulls enter the playoffs as arguably South Africa’s strongest contender. Johan Ackermann’s side have won six successive URC matches and arrive with momentum, confidence and a squad packed with Springbok quality.
The return of Handre Pollard alongside Willie le Roux gives the Bulls exceptional game management, while Cameron Hanekom, Marcell Coetzee and Elrigh Louw provide serious physicality at the breakdown.
Recent form strongly favours the home side. The Bulls have won four of their last five matches, scoring 26 tries and accumulating a points difference of +99. They have also reached 10 points first in four of those five outings and scored first points in every game.
Munster remain dangerous opponents. Their famous win over Leinster earlier in the season showed exactly what they can produce away from home. Craig Casey’s leadership and JJ Hanrahan’s tactical kicking should ensure the visitors remain competitive.
The concern for Munster is whether they can consistently contain the Bulls’ attacking threats over 80 minutes at altitude. Loftus has been a fortress throughout the campaign and the Bulls’ pack appears capable of generating enough front-foot ball to create separation on the scoreboard.
Pick: Bulls -6.5 @1.30
Stormers v Cardiff
DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Kick-off: 15:30 SAST
This is one of the most intriguing quarter-finals after Cardiff stunned the Stormers 22-16 in Wales just two weeks ago.
Ordinarily, the Stormers would be overwhelming favourites at DHL Stadium, but recent results have introduced uncertainty. John Dobson’s side have won just one of their last five matches, while Cardiff have secured three victories from their previous five outings.
The good news for the hosts is that Damian Willemse returns at fullback, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu remains one of the competition’s most dangerous attacking players and Ruhan Nel is back to marshal the midfield.
The historical numbers still favour the Stormers. Home teams have won all five of the last meetings between these sides and the Stormers average 28 points per game against Cardiff compared to Cardiff’s 22.
Cardiff will take confidence from their recent victory and arrive with dangerous runners such as Josh Adams, Ben Thomas and Cam Winnett. However, winning in Cape Town during knockout rugby is an entirely different challenge.
Expect a much sharper Stormers performance after a fortnight of reviewing their shortcomings from the previous encounter.
Pick: Stormers -14.5 @1.88
Rugby live betting – Reading momentum, cards and tactical swings
Leinster v Lions
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 21:00 SAST
The Lions face the toughest assignment of the weekend.
Leinster arrive wounded following their Champions Cup Final defeat and history suggests that makes them even more dangerous. The Irish giants have won four of the last five meetings against the Lions and boast a squad packed with international quality.
Caelan Doris, James Lowe, Dan Sheehan, Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Furlong and Hugo Keenan headline a side that would comfortably compete with most Test teams.
The Lions deserve enormous credit for reaching the playoffs and have shown throughout the season that they can score points against anyone. Henco van Wyk, Quan Horn and Francke Horn have been outstanding, while their attacking approach has produced more points than Leinster over the regular season.
The issue is whether they can maintain that attacking rhythm against one of Europe’s most organised defensive systems. Leinster’s defeat to Bordeaux will ensure there is no shortage of motivation, and Leo Cullen’s side are likely to start with significant intensity.
The Lions may keep things competitive for periods, but Leinster’s depth should ultimately tell.
Pick: Lions +16.5 @1.94
Photo by Chris Fairweather/Gallo Images
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