Real Madrid return to the Santiago Bernabéu holding a 1-0 advantage over Benfica after Vinícius Júnior’s second-half strike settled a tense UEFA Champions League playoff first leg in Lisbon. The tie remains finely balanced.
Form and context
Madrid’s preparation has been mixed. A 2-1 La Liga defeat to Osasuna left them second domestically, increasing scrutiny on performance levels. However, their European record when leading after the first leg is strong. They have progressed in 22 of their last 23 such ties. At 1.40, they are clear favourites to win the second leg, with over 2.5 goals priced at 1.43 and both teams to score at 1.62.
Benfica arrive in Madrid after a 3-0 league win and remain competitive across competitions. The Portuguese side have won eight of their last 11 two-legged European ties, but away form in Spain is a concern with only two wins in 14 visits.
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Team news
Alvaro Arbeloa is expected to retain Vinícius and Kylian Mbappé as a front pairing. Jude Bellingham (hamstring), Éder Militão and Dani Ceballos remain sidelined, while Rodrygo is suspended. Defensive selection could depend on Dean Huijsen’s fitness after a recent muscular issue.
The first meeting was overshadowed by an alleged racist incident involving Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni, which UEFA is investigating. Prestianni has since been suspended pending that process, removing a wide attacking option for the visitors. José Mourinho, sent off in the first leg, will also not be on the touchline.
Vangelis Pavlidis, with 28 goals in all competitions this season, is expected to lead their attacking line.
Market pricing reflects the scale of Benfica’s task. They are 6.00 to win in Madrid, with the draw at 5.00. Under 2.5 goals sits at 2.80, suggesting expectations of a more open contest if Benfica chase the tie.
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The takeaway
Madrid have won five of their last six matches against Portuguese opposition and hold a narrow aggregate lead. Benfica must score at least once to shift the pressure.
With attacking depth and home advantage, Madrid remain well placed to advance, but the second leg demands control rather than risk.
Photo: REUTERS/Vincent West
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