Sunday’s card wraps up Matchday 13 with five fixtures that cut across the table. Arsenal are trying to protect top spot, Chelsea chase, Liverpool are under pressure, and a resurgent Crystal Palace eye another scalp. With Saturday’s results in, the market has shifted, but a few angles still stand out.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United (Selhurst Park)
Crystal Palace start the day in sixth on 20 points from 12 matches, having followed up their strong season with a 2–0 win away to bottom-club Wolves last weekend. Manchester United sit 12th on 18 points and arrive off a damaging 1–0 home defeat to Everton.
Opta’s model makes Palace clear favourites, handing them a 54.1% win probability and United just 22.3%, reflecting both current form and Selhurst Park’s growing reputation as a tough away day. Palace have won three of their last four league meetings with United, and only Arsenal have conceded fewer goals than the Eagles this season, with Palace’s against column still in single digits.
With Betway offering 2.34 on the home win and BTTS “Yes” at 1.60, the value leans towards Palace simply being the better, more settled side right now.
Angle: Crystal Palace to win @ 2.34
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Aston Villa vs Wolves (Villa Park)
Aston Villa are fifth with 21 points from 12 matches and come into this after a 2–1 away win at Leeds on Matchday 12. Wolves remain rooted to the bottom in 20th, with just two points and a goal difference of -20 from 12 games.
Wolves are winless in all 12 league matches this season (D2 L10), and in fact have not won in their last 16 Premier League games overall, losing the last five. Villa, by contrast, have lost just one of their last 24 league matches at Villa Park (W15 D8), and have won their last two home league games against Wolves.
Betway price Villa at 1.51, Wolves at 6.60 and BTTS “Yes” at 1.88. Given the gulf in home strength versus away form, this looks like a spot where the straightforward result remains playable despite a short price.
Angle: Aston Villa to win @ 1.51
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton (City Ground)
Nottingham Forest sit 16th with 12 points from 12 matches, but the headline is recent improvement, a 3–0 win away at Liverpool on Matchday 12 capped back-to-back league victories. Brighton are seventh with 19 points and showed resilience of their own last weekend, coming from behind to beat Brentford 2–1.
Forest are aiming for three league wins on the spin, while Brighton have taken more points from losing positions than any other side this season (10). The Opta supercomputer makes Brighton slight favourites (40.7% win probability) but with a high 25.7% chance of a draw and Forest winning 33.6% of simulations.
With both sides trending towards open, momentum-driven games, Betway’s BTTS “Yes” at 1.64 looks the cleaner way to back an entertaining contest than taking a side at identical match-result odds (2.70–2.70–3.40).
Angle: Both Teams To Score “Yes” @ 1.64
West Ham vs Liverpool (London Stadium)
West Ham start the day in 17th on 11 points from 12 matches, but their November league form has stabilised, seven points from three matches (W2 D1) after taking just four points across the first three months of the season (W1 D1 L7). Liverpool are 13th with 18 points from 12, having been beaten 3–0 by Nottingham Forest at Anfield in Matchday 12.
Opta highlight just how poor Liverpool’s broader run has been, nine losses in their last 12 matches in all competitions, their worst sequence since the 1950s, including back-to-back 3–0 league defeats. Yet they remain the model’s strongest away fancy of the weekend at 49.8% win probability. Historically, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 18 league meetings with West Ham, though they have also lost five successive trips to London in the Premier League.
Betway go 1.63 on Liverpool, 5.20 on West Ham and BTTS “Yes” at 1.56. With West Ham improving and Liverpool still fragile, goals for both sides look more reliable than picking a winner.
Angle: Both Teams To Score “Yes” @ 1.56
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Chelsea vs Arsenal (Stamford Bridge)
Chelsea come into Sunday in third with 23 points from 12 games, while Arsenal lead the league in first with 29 points from 12. Both sides arrive on a high after European wins, Chelsea beating Barcelona 3–0 and Arsenal downing Bayern Munich 3–1 in midweek.
The recent derby record, though, is tilted sharply in Arsenal’s favour. Chelsea have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Arsenal (D3 L7), and are winless in seven (D2 L5). Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge (W3 D3). The supercomputer makes Arsenal slight favourites, with a 41.9% win probability to Chelsea’s 32.6%.
Home form is another factor, only 43.5% of Chelsea’s points this season (10 of 23) have come at Stamford Bridge, one of the lowest home shares in the division. With Betway offering 2.31 on Arsenal and BTTS “Yes” at 1.79, there is a case for both markets, but Arsenal’s trend in this fixture remains strong.
Angle: Arsenal to win @ 2.31
The takeaway
Palace and Villa look well-placed home favourites against an inconsistent United and a winless Wolves. Forest vs Brighton and West Ham vs Liverpool lean clearly towards BTTS angles, while Arsenal’s sustained edge over Chelsea in recent derbies makes the away win a justifiable position at north of 2.30.
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