Spain face Argentina in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday, the first men’s World Cup final between two continental champions.
Match context
Spain arrive as clear favourites. De la Fuente’s side have won all six matches, conceded just once across the tournament, and are unbeaten in 37 consecutive games since losing to Colombia in March 2024. Their 2-0 semi-final win over France restricted a fearsome attack to just 0.31 expected goals.
Oyarzabal scored from the penalty spot before a well-worked second from Porro sealed it. Spain have now set a new all-time record for clean sheets in a single men’s World Cup with six. Yamal missed training with a minor leg concern but has been confirmed fit.
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Argentina have taken the harder road. Extra time was required against Cape Verde and Switzerland, while the semi-final against England demanded a classic comeback – trailing after Anthony Gordon’s opener before Messi set up Enzo Fernandez, with substitute Lautaro Martinez settling it in extra time.
They have gone five games without a clean sheet but scored at least twice in every match, racking up a tournament-high 19 goals, surpassing their previous World Cup record of 18 set in 1930.
Messi has eight goals and four assists and is contesting the Golden Boot alongside Mbappe. Rodrigo De Paul is expected to come into the XI after Giuliano Simeone’s ineffective semi-final showing.
Head-to-head
From 14 meetings, Spain and Argentina have six wins each. Spain won the most recent encounter 6-1 in a 2018 friendly. Argentina have lost three of their four meetings with Spain this century.
Betting angle
Pokerbet’s Spain to win the trophy at 1.60 is the standout market given their defensive dominance and Argentina’s five-match streak without a clean sheet. Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 aligns with Spain’s extraordinary defensive record. Spain draw no bet at 1.57 offers insurance against extra time while still backing the favourite.
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The takeaway
Spain have the defensive discipline, tactical cohesion and momentum that Argentina have been unable to match. Unless Messi produces something extraordinary, De la Fuente’s machine looks set to win a second World Cup.
Photo: REUTERS/Albert Gea
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