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South Africa vs England – Nations Championship betting preview

Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images

The Nations Championship comes to Ellis Park on Saturday, with South Africa hosting England in a fixture that carries the weight of World Cup history and the stakes of a new competition.

South Africa v England (17:40 SAST)

South Africa arrive on a nine-match winning run, having won each of their last four against England, including the 2023 World Cup semi-final and a 29-20 win at Twickenham in November 2024.

England return to Ellis Park for the first time since that remarkable 42-39 defeat in 2018, the first match of the Erasmus era and the beginning of the Springbok’s back-to-back World Cup dynasty. Their only win in Johannesburg came in 1972.

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Steve Borthwick’s side arrive off the back of their worst Six Nations campaign in memory – one win from five including a first defeat to Italy in 33 meetings – while South Africa warmed up with an 80-31 win over the Barbarians.

Erasmus has named a starting XV with just one player capped fewer than 20 times. Cheslin Kolbe and Damian Willemse both win their 50th caps, Manie Libbok gets the fly-half jersey in the absence of the injured Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, and Malcolm Marx makes his first start since being named World Rugby Player of the Year.

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England have made bold selections of their own. Jamie George captains from hooker, Jack van Poortvliet is preferred over Alex Mitchell at scrum-half, Fin Smith wears 10, and George Martin returns from 14 months out with a shoulder injury to start at lock. Henry Pollock is held on the bench as a second-half impact player.

The set-piece battle between Ox Nche’s scrummaging and England’s forward pack is the central contest of the match, with Nche the most dangerous loosehead in world rugby and Ellis Genge facing the sternest possible examination of his credentials at altitude.

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England scored seven tries in Paris against France and showed they can produce fluid rugby when front-foot ball allows, but South Africa’s gainline dominance, aggressive defence and home altitude make a comprehensive home win the most likely outcome.

Pick: South Africa (-6.5) @1.26
Secondary pick: Over 49.5 total points @1.44

Photo: Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images

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