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La Liga round 29 – value bets

Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images

La Liga leaders Barcelona are keen to maintain their four-point lead at the summit as we look into match day 29 from Friday night. 

Barcelona lead the standings with 70 points, four more than their rivals Real Madrid as the two-horse race intensifies with 10 matches left to play in the 2025/26 season. 

There remains daylight between the top two and Atletico Madrid (57) in third and Villarreal (55) in fourth place. The yellow submarine have the chance to enter the weekend in the top three when they host Real Sociedad on Friday night. 

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All 20 teams are in action, and we have a look at some of the high-profile matches scheduled in round 29. 

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Villarreal vs Real Sociedad – Friday, 11PM 

Both these teams come into the game on a similar run of form – winning three of their last five games in all competitions. They have each suffered just one defeat in that run. 

Villarreal can leapfrog Atletico into third place as they look to seal a top four finish this season. They had to settle for a point in a 1-1 draw at Alaves last time out. 

Meanwhile, Sociedad were convincing 3-1 winners against Osasuna to lift them into seventh place with 38 points. The visiting team have a fully fit squad to choose from ahead of this match. 

Villarreal are hoping they can complete the league double over their opponents after edging them 3-2 in the reverse fixture last November. 

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Prediction – Villarreal to win or draw 

Sevilla vs Valencia – Saturday, 11PM 

Sevilla are coming off a heavy 5-2 defeat at Barcelona, a first loss in their last five games in all competitions. A third consecutive game without a win leaves them in 15th with 31 points. 

Valencia are only one point above their opponents in 14th. They are also coming off a shock 1-0 loss to Oviedo, snapping a two-game winning streak. 

There was nothing to separate these teams in the reverse fixture, settling for a point in a 1-1 stalemate. Only two of their last 14 head-to-head matches has produced over 2.5 goals and they could be rare here too. 

Prediction – Under 2.5 goals 

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Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano – Sunday, 4PM 

The league leaders are hot favorites to maintain their incredible home form against Vallecano. Barca have won all of their 14 league home matches this season. 

Barcelona are coming off a resounding 7-2 statement victory against Newcastle United to book their place in the Champions League quarterfinals. 

They host a 13th place Vallecano side who are also unbeaten in their last five league games and are coming off back-to-back draws against Sevilla and Levante. The visitors did well to get a point in the reverse fixture after a 1-1 draw. 

Prediction – Barcelona to win 

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Athletic Bilbao vs Betis – Sunday, 8:30PM 

Bilbao are desperate for a positive result after losing their last three games in all competitions. Their last outing was another one to forget as they lost 3-0 to Girona in La Liga. 

Their poor run of form sees them drop to 10th place with 35 points. They need to be at their best as they welcome fifth place Betis to the Estadio San Mamès. 

Betis were also 4-1 winners against Panathinaikos in midweek to cement their place in the Europa League quarters. Their last La Liga assignment resulted in a disappointing 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. 

Bilbao have enjoyed recent success over Betis in La Liga, winning three of their last five head-to-head encounters. This includes a 2-1 away victory the last time these sides met last August. 

Both sides have struggled in recent weeks, with both winning just once in their recent run of five matches in all competitions. 

Prediction – Under 2.5 goals

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid – Sunday, 11PM

The final game in round 29 is the biggest one as we look forward to the Madrid derby at the Santiago Bernabeau. Alvaro Arbeloa’s charges are on a four-game winning streak ahead of this match and remain hot on Barca’s heels in the title race.

Madrid are coming off a resounding 5-1 aggregate victory over Manchester City in the Champions League, in-between a thumping 4-1 La Liga win against Elche.

Their city rivals also booked their place in the Champions League semis despite losing 3-2 to Tottenham in the second leg. Their last La Liga assignment resulted in a hard-fought 1-0 win against Getafe.

Atletico are in third place, nine points behind Real Madrid, with their main aim being to maintain a top four finish at the end of the season. The visitors thrashed Madrid 5-2 in the reverse fixture last year, before Real got their revenge in a 2-1 Super Cup semi win.

Prediction – Real Madrid to win

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